USD/CHF edged higher to 1.0056 last week but failed to sustain above 1.0037 resistance. A short term top is formed on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD> Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week. Deeper pull back could be seen to trend line support (now at 0.9761). At this point, we’d expect strong support from there to bring rally resumption. On the upside, sustained break of 1.0037 will resume recent rise for 1.0342 key resistance next.

In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 1.0342 has completed with three waves down to 0.9186. Rise from there is currently viewed as a leg inside the long term range pattern. Hence, while further rally would be seen, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from 1.0342 to limit upside. For now, further rise is expected as long as 38.2% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0056 at 0.9724 holds.

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In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.

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