USD/JPY dropped to as low as 108.10 last week but failed to sustain below 55 day EMA and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week with focus on 109.82 minor resistance. Break there will indicate completion of the pull back from 113.39. And that will revive the bullish case that rise from 104.62 is still in progress. Retest of 111.39 should be seen first. On the downside, though, break of 108.10 will extend the fall from 108.10 to 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 instead.

In the bigger picture, at this point w;’re slightly favoring the case that corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.62. Above 111.39 will affirm this week and target 114.73 for confirmation. However, it should be noted that USD?JPY is bounded in medium term falling channel from 118.65 (2016 high). Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 104.62 to 111.39 at 107.20 will likely resume the fall from 118.65 through 104.62 low.

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In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 top is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.


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