Thu, Jun 24, 2021 @ 03:33 GMT

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

USD/JPY rebounded strong last week, after drawing support from 55 day EMA. Further rise is mildly in favor as long as 108.42 minor support holds, to 109.95 resistance first. Break there will target 110.95 high next. Nevertheless, break of 108.42 minor support will turn bias to the downside, to resume the fall from 110.95 through 107.47.

In the bigger picture, rise from 102.58 might have completed at 110.95. But strong support from 55 day EMA retains near term bullish for the pair. Break of 110.95 resistance will carry larger bullish implications and target 112.22 resistance next. Though, break of 107.47 support will shift favor to the case of long term sideway trading between 101.18/111.71.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

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