Sat, Oct 23, 2021 @ 23:52 GMT

USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

USD/JPY surged sharply higher to 110.78 last week. The break of 110.44 resistance suggests that consolidation pattern from 111.65 has completed already. Initial bias is now on the upside this week. Firm break of 110.79 resistance will target a test on 111.65 high. On the downside, below 110.30 minor support will mix up the near term outlook and turn bias neutral again.

In the bigger picture, medium term outlook is staying neutral with 111.71 resistance intact. The pattern from 101.18 could still extend with another falling leg. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA will bring deeper fall to 107.47 support and below. Nevertheless, strong break of 111.71 resistance will confirm completion of the corrective decline from 118.65 (2016 high). Further rise should then be seen to 114.54 and then 118.65 resistance.

In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.

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