USD/JPY retreated further last week but recovered ahead of 121.17 support. Initial bias remains neutral this week and further rise is still in favor. On the upside, break of 125.09 will target 161.8% projection of 109.11 to 116.34 from 114.40 at 126.09, which is close to 125.85 long term resistance. However, break of 121.17 will indicate short term topping, and bring deeper pull back.
In the bigger picture, up trend from 98.97 (2016 low) in in progress for retesting 125.85 (2015 high). Sustained break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 130.04. This will now remain the favored case as long as 116.34 resistance turned support holds.
In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective pattern that might have completed at 98.97 already. Firm break of 125.85 will target 61.8% projection of 75.56to 125.85 from 98.97 at 103.04. Next is 100% projection at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high).
