USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

USD/JPY edged higher to 135.58 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week and some more consolidation cannot be ruled out. But further rally is expected as long as 131.34 support holds. On the upside, break of 135.58 will resume larger up trend to 61.8% projection of 114.40 to 131.34 from 126.35 at 136.81. Firm break there will target 100% projection at 143.29.

In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.

In the long term picture, the up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) has just resumed. Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high).

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