Daily Pivots: (S1) 136.15; (P) 136.80; (R1) 137.28; More…
USD/JPY’s break of 134.73 support now suggests that 139.37 is a medium term top, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Fall from there is seen as a correction to medium term up trend. Intraday bias is on the downside for 55 day EMA (now at 133.84) first. Sustained break there will target 126.35/131.34 support zone. On the upside, break of 137.44 resistance is needed to indicate completion of the decline. Otherwise, risk will stay on the downside in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, current rally is seen as part of the long term up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Next target is 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is close to 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 126.35 support holds.
