USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

USD/JPY edged higher to 145.89 last week but retreated sharply since then. Yet, downside is contained above 139.37 resistance turned support, and thus there is no indicate of topping yet. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Break of 145.89 will target 147.68 long term resistance. On the downside, however, decisive break of 139.37 will confirm short term topping, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Deeper decline would be seen back towards 130.38 support.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 101.18 is still in progress, as part of the whole up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rise should be seen to 147.68 (1998 high). For now, break of 130.38 support is needed to be the first indication of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish even in case of deep pull back.

In the long term picture, rise from 101.18 is seen as part of the up trend from 75.56 (2011 low). Further rally is expected to 100% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 98.97 at 149.26, which is slightly above 147.68 (1998 high). This will remain the favored case as long as 130.38 support holds.

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