USD/JPY gyrated higher to 138.16 last week but failed to extend the rally. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the upside, break of 138.16 will resume the rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 140.30). On the downside, however, firm break of 133.61 support and 133.07 medium term fibonacci level will confirm resumption of whole fall from 151.93.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 151.93 medium term could be just a corrective pattern to up trend from 102.58 (2021 low). Strong support from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 133.07 and 55 week EMA (now at 131.71) will set the range for such corrective pattern. However, sustained break of 55 week EMA will pave the way to 61.8% retracement at 121.43.
In the long term picture, rise from 102.58, as part of the up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) was put to a halt at 151.93, just ahead of 100% projection of 75.56 to 125.85 from 102.58 at 152.87. There is no clear sign of long term reversal yet. Such up trend is expected to resume at a later stage, as long as 125.85 resistance turned support holds.
