USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

USD/JPY’s rebound from 140.25 resumed last week and edged higher to 146.40. But subsequent retreat indicates temporary topping. Initial bias is neutral this week first. Further rise is mildly in favor as long as 143.41 minor support holds. Above 146.40 will target 61.8% retracement of 151.89 to 140.25 at 147.44. Upside should be limited there to bring reversal. On the downside, break of 143.41 will turn bias back to the downside for retesting 140.25 low.

In the bigger picture, for now, fall from 151.89 is still seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 151.89. Another decline through 140.25 will target 61.8% retracement of 127.20 to 151.89 at 136.63. Sustained break there will pave the way to 127.20 support (2022 low). However, firm break of 147.44 fibonacci resistance will dampen this view and bring retest of 151.89 instead.

In the long term picture, as long as 125.85 resistance turned support holds (2015 high), up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in favor to continue through 151.93 (2022 high) at a later stage.

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