USD/JPY Weekly Outlook

USD/JPY’s rise from 151.68 accelerated to as high as 159.81 last week and there is no clear sign of topping yet. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 160.20 high, or possibly to 100% projection of 151.86 to 157.70 from 154.53 at 160.37. But upside should be limited there, at least on first attempt. On the downside, below 158.24 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral first. However, decisive break of 160.37 will pave the way to 161.8% projection at 163.97.

In the bigger picture, there is no sign of long term trend reversal yet. Further rally is expected as long as 150.87 resistance turned support holds. Decisive break of 160.02 will target 100% projection of 127.20 to 151.89 from 140.25 at 164.94.

In the long term picture, as long as 140.25 support holds, up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 75.56 (2011 low) to 125.85 (2015 high) from 102.58 at 172.08.

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