USD/JPY edged higher to 153.87 last week but failed to sustain above 61.8% retracement of 161.94 to 139.57 at 153.39 and retreated. Initial bias remains neutral this week for more consolidations. Further rally is expected as long as 55 D EMA (now at 148.96) holds. Sustained trading above 153.39 will pave the way to retest 161.94 high.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). The range of medium term consolidation should be set between 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 and 161.94. Nevertheless, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.
In the long term picture, it’s still early to conclude that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. However, a medium term corrective phase should have commenced, with risk of deep correction towards 55 M EMA (now at 134.54).
 holds. Sustained trading above 153.39 will pave the way to retest 161.94 high.){kind=link}