Daily Pivots: (S1) 154.48; (P) 156.86; (R1) 158.09; More…
USD/JPY gaps lower today and fall from 159.44 accelerates. Intraday bias stays on the downside for 38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 159.44 at 151.96. Strong support should be seen there to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. On the upside above 155.33 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. However, decisive break of 151.96 will argue that fall from 159.44 is not a correction, be reversing whole rise from 139.87. Deeper decline would then be seen to 61.8% retracement at 147.34.
In the bigger picture, outlook is unchanged that corrective pattern from 161.94 (2024 high) should have completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend from 102.58 (2021 low) could be ready to resume through 161.94. This will remain the favored case as long as 55 W EMA (now at 151.35) holds. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA will argue that the pattern from 161.94 is extending with another falling leg.
