USD/JPY fell sharply last week and there is no clear sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias stays on the downside this week with focus on 154.76/155.01 key support zone. Strong support is expected from the zone to bring rebound. But decisive break there will carry larger bearish implications. On the upside above 157.35 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, as long as 155.01 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 163.97 at 154.76) holds, the larger up trend is still expected to continue through 163.97 after current correction completes. However, firm break of 155.01 will raise the chance that USD/JPY is already in a larger scale correction, and open up deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 149.07 next.
In the long term picture, long term outlook will stay bullish as long as 139.87 support holds, even in case of deep pullback. Up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in favor to resume after current correction from 163.97 completes.
