USD/JPY’s rise from from 152.87 resumed by breaking through 159.02 last week, but lost momentum ahead of 160.38 key structural resistance. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 160.38 will target 100% projection of 152.87 to 159.02 from 156.06 at 162.21. However, break of 157.65 will indicate short term topping, and bring deeper fall to 156.06 support.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that the first leg of the corrective pattern from 163.97 has completed with three waves down to 152.87. Further rally would be seen to retest this high. But strong resistance should be seen from there to limit upside on first attempt. The correction is still expected to extend with another falling leg before long term up trend resumption.
In the long term picture, long term outlook will stay bullish as long as 139.87 support holds, even in case of deep pullback. Up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in favor to resume after current correction from 163.97 completes.
