Weekly
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Long white candlestick
• Time of formation: 10 Jul 2017
• Trend bias: Up
Daily
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Long white candlestick
• Time of formation: 18 Jul 2017
• Trend bias: Up
Aussie has dropped again since late last week, justifying our bearish view and the breach of previous support at 0.7733 confirms recent fall from 0.8125 top has resumed, indicated downside target at 0.7680 was met (with 200 points profit), although this move may extend weakness to 0.7600, as this move is still viewed as retracement of early upmove, reckon downside would be limited to 0.7570-75 and support at 0.7535-40 would remain intact due to oversold condition, risk from there has increased for a rebound later.
On the upside, whilst initial recovery from 0.7625 may bring corrective bounce to the Tenkan-Sen (now at 0.7752), reckon upside would be limited to 0.7800 and previous support at 0.7819 should hold and bring another decline later. Only break of indicated resistance at 0.7897 would abort and signal low is formed instead, bring a stronger rebound to 0.7915-20, then towards 0.7970-75, however, still reckon upside would be limited to 0.8000 and price should falter below resistance at 0.8103, bring another decline later.
Recommendation: Short entered at 0.7880 met target at 0.7680 with 200 points profit
On the weekly chart, last week’s anticipated selloff formed another black candlestick and indicated support at 0.7733 was penetrated, adding credence to our view that top has been formed at 0.8125, hence consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 0.7570-75, then towards support at 0.7535, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to the lower Kumo (now at 0.7462) and reckon support at 0.7372 would hold from here.
On the upside, although initial recovery back to previous support at 0.7733 cannot be ruled out, reckon upside would be limited to 0.7830-35 and price should falter well below the Tenkan-Sen (now at 0.7875), bring another decline later. A weekly close above resistance at 0.7897 would abort and signal low is formed instead, bring a stronger rebound to 0.7950-60 and possibly towards 0.8000 but upside would still be limited and 0.8103 resistance should remain intact, bring another decline later.
