Weekly
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
• Time of formation: 31 Jul 2017
• Trend bias: Near term up
Daily
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting star
• Time of formation: 2 Aug 2017
• Trend bias: Up
EUR/USD – 1.2015
Although the single currency resumed recent upmove after finding renewed buying interest at 1.1823 and rose to as high as 1.2093, the subsequent retreat formed a shooting star alike pattern on the daily chart and if a long black candlestick is formed today, this would signal a potential bearish reversal pattern is finished and further consolidation below said resistance would be seen with mild downside bias for test of the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.1958), then towards the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.1878), however, reckon said support at 1.1823 would hold from here and bring rebound later. Looking ahead, only a drop below this level would signal a temporary top has been formed and bring retracement of recent rise to 1.1770-75, then 1.1740 but reckon support at 1.1662 would remain intact.
On the upside, above said resistance at 1.2093 would signal recent upmove is still in progress and may extend headway to dynamic resistance at 1.2165-70 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3993-1.0340) and later towards 1.2200-10, however, loss of upward momentum should prevent sharp move beyond 1.2250-60 and reckon 1.2300-10 would hold from here, risk from there is seen for another retreat to take place later this month.
Recommendation: Stand aside for this week.
On the weekly chart, the single currency has continued moving higher after brief pullback, suggesting recent upmove from 1.0340 low is still in progress and mild upside bias remains for further gain to 1.2100 and possibly towards 1.2160-70 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3993-1.0340) but loss of upward momentum should limit upside to 1.2220-30 and reckon 1.2300-10 would hold from here, price should falter well below 1.2390-00, bring another retreat later.
On the downside, whilst initial pullback to 1.1950-55 is likely, reckon downside would be limited to 1.1925-30 and support at 1.1i868 would hold, bring another rise later. A drop below support at 1.1823 (last week’s low) would suggest a temporary top is possibly formed, bring test of the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.1764) , break there would add credence to this view, then correction of recent upmove would commence for retracement to 1.1662 support and later towards 1.1600 but downside should be limited to 1.1500-05, bring rebound.
