Weekly
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Shooting doji
• Time of formation: 01 May 2017
• Trend bias: Sideway
Daily
• Last Candlesticks pattern: Long white candlestick
• Time of formation: 20 Oct 2017
• Trend bias: Near term up
USD/CAD – 1.2826
The greenback has surged again after last week’s late rally, suggesting the rise from 1.2061 low is still in progress and may extend further gain to 1.2900, however, as this move is still viewed as retracement of early downtrend, reckon upside would be limited to 1.2925-30 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3794-1.2061) and upside should be limited to 1.3000 and price should falter well below dynamic resistance at 1.3130-35 (6 1.8% Fibonacci retracement) and price shall turn back south again from there.
On the downside, whilst pullback to 1.2760-65 is likely, reckon the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.2642) would limit downside and bring another rise later. Only a daily close below the Kijun-Sen (now at 1.2546) would defer and suggest top is possibly formed, bring weakness to the upper Kumo (now at 1.2503) but support at 1.2433 should remain intact. If the pair drops below said support at 1.2433 would signal top is formed, bring further fall to 1.2360-65 but reckon the lower Kumo (now at 1.2321) would hold from here.
Recommendation: Buy at 1.2650 for 1.2900 with stop below 1.2550
On the weekly chart, this week’s rally looks set to form another white candlestick and consolidation with mild upside bias remains for the rebound from 1.2061 low to bring retracement of recent decline, hence test of 1.2925-30 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3794-1.2061 and current level of the Kijun-Sen) is likely, however, reckon upside would be limited to 1.3000 and the lower Kumo (now at 1.3079) should hold from here, price should falter below 1.3130-35 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), bring retreat later.
On the downside, expect pullback to be limited to 1.2650-60 and this week’s low at 1.2612 should hold, bring another rise later. A drop below previous resistance at 1.2599 (now support) would defer and suggest top is possibly formed, bring weakness to 1.2550, then towards 1.2500 but reckon the Tenkan-Sen (now at 1.2453) would limit downside and bring another rise later. Only a drop below support at 1.2433 would signal the rebound from 1.2061 has ended instead, bring further fall to 1.2390-00 and later towards 1.2300-10 but reckon 1.2121 support would remain intact.
