The indicated wave C of larger degree wave 2 took place in most part of 2016, indicated downside retracement target at 124.00, 121.90-00 (50% Fibonacci retracement of entire wave I from 94.12-149.79) and 120.00 had all been met, price dropped to as low as 109.49 by mid-2016, however, the single currency found good support there and has staged a strong rebound in H2 2016, suggesting wave C or at least the wave iii of C has ended at 109.49, hence consolidation with upside bias is seen for gain to 125.20-30 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 141.06-109.49), then towards 128.20-25 but break of resistance at 132.33 is needed to signal the entire A-B-C has ended, bring further rise to 134.40-50 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 149.79-109.49) but upside should be limited to 139.00-05 and price should falter below resistance at 141.06 (wave B top), bring retreat later.

On the downside, whilst pullback to 121.50-60 and possibly 120.00 cannot be ruled out, reckon 118.70-75 would limit downside and bring another rebound later to aforesaid upside targets. Only below previous resistance at 116.29 (minor wave i top) would defer and suggest rebound from 109.49 has ended instead (which means only minor wave iii of C has ended at 109.49), then further fall to 114.00 would follow but break of 112.60-65 is needed to bring retest of 109.49. Looking ahead, a drop below 109.49 would signal the wave v of C of larger degree wave 2 is still in progress for weakness to 107.00 but reckon downside would be limited to 105.00 and price should stay above 102.70-75 (1.618 times projection of wave A), bring another rebound later.


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