AUD/USD – 0.7399

Recent wave: Wave 5 ended at 1.1081 and major correction has commenced for fall to 0.7000 and then towards 0.6500-10

Trend: Near term down

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Original strategy :

Sell at 0.7455, Target: 0.7300, Stop: 0.7515

Position: –
Target:  –
Stop: –

New strategy :

Sell at 0.7470, Target: 0.7300, Stop: 0.7530

Position: –
Target:  –

As this week’s selloff has kept aussie under pressure, suggesting recent decline from 0.7750 top is still in progress for at least a retracement of early upmove, hence bearishness remains for further weakness to 0.7330-35 (100% projection of 0.7750-0.7473 measuring from 0.7611), then 0.7295-00 (76.4% retracement of 0.7158-0.7750),  however, near term oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 0.7245-50, bring rebound later.

In view of this, we are looking to sell aussie on recovery as 0.7465-70 should limit upside, bring another decline. Above 0.7500-10 would defer and risk rebound to said resistance at 0.7556 but break there is needed to signal low is formed instead, bring further gain to 0.7580-85 but resistance at 0.7611 should hold from here.

On the 4-hour chart, the move from 0.8066 is the wave 5 with i: 0.8860, ii: 0.8315, wave iii is an extended move ended at 1.0183, iv: 0.9706 and wave v has ended at 1.1081 (also the top of entire wave 5). The subsequent selloff is the major correction which is unfolding as ABC-X-ABC and 2nd A leg has ended at 0.8848, followed by a-b-c wave B which ended at 0.9758, hence, 2nd C wave is now in progress and indicated downside target at 0.7000 and 0.6950 had been met, so further fall to 0.6710-20 cannot be ruled out.


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