GBP/USD – 1.2941

Recent wave: Wave V of larger degree wave (III) has ended at 1.1986 and major correction has commenced from there for gain to 1.3000 and 1.3140-50

Trend: Near term up

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Original strategy :

Sold at 1.2955, Target: 1.2775, Stop: 1.3015

Position: – Short at 1.2955
Target:  – 1.2775
Stop: – 1.3015

New strategy :

Hold short entered at 1.2955, Target: 1.2775, Stop: 1.3000

Position: – Short at 1.2955
Target:  – 1.2775
Stop:- 1.3000

Although cable rebounded after finding support at 1.2903 yesterday, as long as indicated resistance at 1.2991-00 holds, further consolidation would be seen with mild downside bias for another test of 1.2900-03 support, break there would suggest a temporary top is possibly formed, bring weakness to 1.2831 support, however, a break below this level is needed to add credence to this view, bring retracement of recent rise to 1.2770-75 but previous support at 1.2757 should hold from here. We are keeping our view that the wave c as well as larger degree wave B has ended at 1.2109, hence impulsive wave C has commenced from there with wave i of C ended at 1.2616, follow by a correction to 1.2365 (end of wave ii) and wave iii rally is unfolding.

Our preferred count on the daily chart is that cable’s rebound from 1.3500 (wave (A) trough) is unfolding as a wave (B) with A ended at 1.7043, followed by triangle wave B and wave C as well as wave (B) has ended at 1.7192, the subsequent selloff is the larger degree wave (C) which is still unfolding with minor wave (III) of larger degree wave 3 ended at 1.1986, hence wave (IV) correction is in progress which could either be a triangle wave (IV) of a complex formation but upside should be limited to 1.3500 and price should falter well below 1.4000, bring another decline in wave (V) of 3 for weakness to 1.1500, then 1.1200.

On the upside, expect recovery to be limited to 1.2980 and bring another retreat later. Above said resistance at 1.2995 would extend recent upmove to 1.3040-50 but overbought condition should limit upside to 1.3075-80 and price should falter below 1.3100. 

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