EUR/JPY – 125.08
Recent wave: wave v of (C) ended at 94.12 and major correction in wave A has ended at 149.79
Trend: Near term up
New strategy :
Although the single currency edged higher after staging a strong rebound from 122.56 (last week’s low) and marginal gain to 125.50-55 is likely, break of recent high at 125.82 is needed to signal recent upmove has resumed and extend further gain to 126.20-30 and possibly 126.60-70 but reckon 127.00-10 would hold from here due to near term overbought condition.
In view of this, would not chase this rise here and would be prudent to stand aside for now. Below 124.10-15 would bring retreat to 123.35-40 but reckon downside would be limited to 123.00 and said support at 122.56 should hold, bring another rebound. Only a break below this support would add credence to our view that top has been formed, bring retracement of recent upmove to 122.00-10 and then 121.50-60 but downside should be limited to 121.20-30.
Our latest preferred count is that wave (ii) is ABC-X-ABC which ended at 123.33 and wave (iii) is unfolding with wave iii ended at 100.77, followed by wave iv at 111.57 and wave v as well as the wave (iii) has ended at 97.04, followed by wave (iv) at 111.43 and wave (v) has ended at 94.12 which is also the end of the larger degree v, this also implied the major wave (C) has also ended there, hence major correction has commenced from there with (A) leg unfolding in its lower degree wave c which has possibly ended at 145.69. Under this count, A-B-C wave (B) has commenced with A leg ended at 136.23, wave B at 143.79 and wave C has possibly ended at 149.79.
Our larger degree count is that the decline from 139.26 is wave (C) and is sub-divided into a diagonal triangle i-ii-iii-iv-v with wave i – 105.44, wave ii- 123.33, wave iii – 97.03, wave iv – 111.43, followed by the final wave v as well as the end of wave (C) at 94.12, this also mark the bottom of larger degree wave B. Under this count, major rise in wave C has commenced as an impulsive wave with minor wave III ended at 145.69, wave V is still in progress for further gain to 150.00. Having said that, this so-called wave V could well be the first leg of larger degree 5-waver wave C and this wave C should bring at least a retest of wave A top at 169.97 (July 2008).