USD/CAD – 1.2972

Recent wave: Only wave v of c has ended at 0.9407 and wave C of major A-B-C correction is underway for headway to 1.4700

Trend:  Near term down

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Original strategy       :

Sell at 1.3115, Target: 1.2915, Stop: 1.3175

Position: –

Target:  –

Stop: –

New strategy             :

Sell at 1.3115, Target: 1.2915, Stop: 1.3175

Position: –

Target:  –


As the greenback has remained under pressure after last week’s selloff, bearishness remains for recent decline to resume after consolidation, although corrective bounce to 1.3045-50 and possibly 1.3080 is likely, reckon 1.3115-20 would limit upside and bring another decline later, below support at 1.2946 would extend the fall from 1.3794 top (wave c of larger degree wave b top) to 1.2920, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to 1.2900 and reckon 1.2870 would hold from here, risk from there has increased for a rebound later.

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to sell the pair again on recovery as 1.3115-20 should limit upside. Above 1.3160-70 would defer and suggest low is formed, bring a stronger rebound to 1.3215-20 and possibly towards 1.3260-65 but only break there would abort and signal a temporary low is formed instead, then test of resistance at 1.3308 would follow.

To recap, wave B from 1.3066 is unfolding as an a-b-c and is sub-divided as a: 1.2192, b: 1.2716 and wave c is a 5-waver with i: 1.1983, ii: 1.2506, extended wave iii with minor iii at 1.0206, wave iv ended at 1.0781 and wave v as well as wave iii has ended at 0.9931, hence the subsequent choppy trading is the wave iv which is unfolding as (a)-(b)-(c) with (a) leg of iv ended at 1.0854, followed by (b) leg at 1.0108 and (c) leg as well as the wave iv ended at 1.0674. The wave v is sub-divided by minor wave (i): 0.9980, (ii): 1.0374, (iii): 0.9446, (iv): 0.9913 and (v) as well as v has possibly ended at 0.9407, therefore, consolidation with upside bias is seen for major correction, indicated target at 1.3700 and 1.4000 had been met and further gain to 1.4700 would be seen later.


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