AUD/USD – 0.7926
Recent wave: Wave 5 ended at 1.1081 and major correction has commenced for fall to 0.7000 and then towards 0.6500-10
Trend: Near term up
Original strategy :
Sold at 0.7650, stopped at 0.7690
Position: – Short at 0.7650
Stop: – 0.7690
New strategy :
Buy at 0.7840, Target: 0.8000, Stop: 0.7780
Although aussie retreated earlier this month to 0.7571, renewed buying interest emerged there and the pair has rallied since, signaling recent upmove has resumed and some sort of impulsive waves (1 2, (i)(ii), i ii) is unfolding with minor wave iii is now in progress, hence further gain to 0.8000 would be seen, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 0.8040-50 and price should falter below 0.8100, risk from there is seen for a wave iv correction to take place later this month.
In view of this, would not chase this rise here and we are looking to buy aussie on subsequent pullback as 0.7840-50 should limit downside, bring another upmove later. Below support at 0.7786 would defer and suggest wave iii top is formed, bring correction in wave iv to 0.7750 but wave i top at 0.7712 should remain intact.
On the 4-hour chart, the move from 0.8066 is the wave 5 with i: 0.8860, ii: 0.8315, wave iii is an extended move ended at 1.0183, iv: 0.9706 and wave v has ended at 1.1081 (also the top of entire wave 5). The subsequent selloff is the major correction which is unfolding as ABC-X-ABC and 2nd A leg has ended at 0.8848, followed by a-b-c wave B which ended at 0.9758, hence, 2nd C wave is now in progress and indicated downside target at 0.7000 and 0.6950 had been met, so further fall to 0.6710-20 cannot be ruled out.