USD/CAD – 1.2493

Recent wave: Only wave v of c has ended at 0.9407 and wave C of major A-B-C correction is underway with wave iii ended at 1.4690, wave v of C may bring one more marginal rise probably in 2018

Trend:  Down

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Original strategy       :

Sell at 1.2690, Target: 1.2490, Stop: 1.2750

Position: –

Target:  –

Stop: –

New strategy             :

Sell at 1.2690, Target: 1.2400, Stop: 1.2750

Position: –

Target:  –


As the greenback has recovered after holding above last week’s low at 1.2414, retaining our view that further consolidation would take place and another corrective bounce too 1.2575-80 is likely, above there would bring retracement of recent decline to 1.2640-50 but reckon 1.2700-05 would limit upside and bring another decline later, below said support at 1.2414 would signal downtrend has resumed and extend weakness to 1.2400, then  towards 1.2350-60, however, oversold condition should prevent sharp fall below 1.2330 and reckon 1.2300 would hold, risk from there is seen for a rebound later. We are keeping our count that wave v as well as wave (C) ended at 1.3794 and impulsive wave (i ii, i ii) is now unfolding with minor wave iii still in progress, hence bearishness remains for this fall to extend weakness to aforesaid downside targets.

In view of this, would not chase this fall here and would be prudent to sell the pair again on recovery as 1.2690-95 should limit upside. Above 1.2745-50 would defer and risk a stronger rebound to 1.2800-10 but only break of latter level would signal a temporary low is formed instead, bring retracement of recent decline to 1.2850, then 1.2900, however, price should falter below 1.3000 and the greenback shall head south again from there.

To recap, wave B from 1.3066 is unfolding as an a-b-c and is sub-divided as a: 1.2192, b: 1.2716 and wave c is a 5-waver with i: 1.1983, ii: 1.2506, extended wave iii with minor iii at 1.0206, wave iv ended at 1.0781 and wave v as well as wave iii has ended at 0.9931, hence the subsequent choppy trading is the wave iv which is unfolding as (a)-(b)-(c) with (a) leg of iv ended at 1.0854, followed by (b) leg at 1.0108 and (c) leg as well as the wave iv ended at 1.0674. The wave v is sub-divided by minor wave (i): 0.9980, (ii): 1.0374, (iii): 0.9446, (iv): 0.9913 and (v) as well as v has possibly ended at 0.9407, therefore, consolidation with upside bias is seen for major correction, indicated target at 1.3700 and 1.4000 had been met and further gain to 1.4700 would be seen later.


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