EUR/JPY – 120.31

Recent wave: wave v of (C) ended at 94.12 and major correction in wave A has ended at 149.79

Trend: Sideways

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Original strategy:

Buy at 119.65, Target: 121.35, Stop: 119.05

Position: –
Target:  –
Stop: –

New strategy :

Buy at 119.65, Target: 121.35, Stop: 119.05

Position: –
Target:  –
Stop:-

As the single currency has retreated after rising to 121.19 late last week, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 120.00 is likely, however, reckon downside would be limited to 119.60-65 and bring another rise later, above said resistance at 121.19 would extend the rebound from 118.24 low for retracement of recent decline to 121.30-35 but overbought condition should limit upside to 121.90-00 and price should falter well below resistance at 122.52, bring another decline later.

In view of this, we are looking to buy euro on dips as 119.60-65 should limit downside. Below previous resistance at 119.47 would defer and risk weakness to 119.00-10 but reckon support at 118.67 would contain downside and bring further consolidation. Only below this support would signal the rebound from 118.24 has ended, bring retest of this level later. A drop below there would extend recent decline from 124.10 top to 118.00 and later towards 117.50.

Our latest preferred count is that wave (ii) is ABC-X-ABC which ended at 123.33 and wave (iii) is unfolding with wave iii ended at 100.77, followed by wave iv at 111.57 and wave v as well as the wave (iii) has ended at 97.04, followed by wave (iv) at 111.43 and wave (v) has ended at 94.12 which is also the end of the larger degree v, this also implied the major wave (C) has also ended there, hence major correction has commenced from there with (A) leg unfolding in its lower degree wave c which has possibly ended at 145.69. Under this count, A-B-C wave (B) has commenced with A leg ended at 136.23, wave B at 143.79 and wave C has possibly ended at 149.79.

Our larger degree count is that the decline from 139.26 is wave (C) and is sub-divided into a diagonal triangle i-ii-iii-iv-v with wave i – 105.44, wave ii- 123.33, wave iii – 97.03, wave iv – 111.43, followed by the final wave v as well as the end of wave (C) at 94.12, this also mark the bottom of larger degree wave B. Under this count, major rise in wave C has commenced as an impulsive wave with minor wave III ended at 145.69, wave V is still in progress for further gain to 150.00. Having said that, this so-called wave V could well be the first leg of larger degree 5-waver wave C and this wave C should bring at least a retest of wave A top at 169.97 (July 2008).

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