EUR/GBP – 0.9172

Original strategy  :

Sell at 0.9265, Target: 0.9115, Stop: 0.9305

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Position : –

Target :  –

Stop : –

New strategy  :

Sell at 0.9265, Target: 0.9115, Stop: 0.9305

Position : –

Target :  –

Stop : –

 
Euro’s retreat after rising to 0.9307 last week suggests consolidation below this level would be seen and reckon 0.9250-60 would limit upside, bring another decline to 0.9148-50 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8892-0.9307 and previous support), break there would add credence to our view that top is possibly formed there, bring retracement of recent rise to 0.9110-15 and possibly towards 0.9095-00 (50% Fibonacci retracement) which is likely to hold from here. 

In view of this, we are inclined to sell euro on recovery as 0.9265-70 should limit upside. Only above said resistance at 0.9307 would revive bullishness and extend recent upmove to 0.9325-30 and possibly towards 0.9350 but loss of upward momentum should limit upside and price should falter below 0.9390-00.

Our preferred count is that, after forming a major top at 0.9805 (wave V), (A)-(B)-(C) correction is unfolding with (A) leg ended at 0.8400 (A: 0.8637, B: 0.9491 and 5-waver C ended at 0.8400. Wave (B) has ended at 0.9413 and impulsive wave (C) has either ended at 0.8067 or may extend one more fall to 0.8000 before prospect of another rally. Current breach of indicated resistance at 0.9043 confirms our view that the (C) leg has ended and bring stronger rebound towards 0.9150/54, then towards 0.9240/50.

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