AUD/USD – 0.7576

Recent wave: Wave 5 ended at 1.1081 and major correction has commenced for fall to 0.7000 and then towards 0.6500-10

Trend: Near term up

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Original strategy :

Sold at 0.7605, stopped profit at 0.7585

Position: – Short at 0.7605
Target:  –
Stop: – 0.7585

New strategy :

Stand aside

Position: –
Target:  –

Despite last week’s anticipated fall to 0.7491, lack of follow through selling and the subsequent stronger-than-expected rebound dampened our bearishness and suggest a temporary low has possibly been formed there, hence consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for further gain to 0.7600-10, however, break of resistance at 0.7633 is needed to add credence to this view, bring a stronger rebound to 0.7665-70, above there would suggest the fall from 0.7741 top has ended, then gain to 0.7700 would follow.

In view of this, would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime. Below  0.7525 minor support would revive bearishness and bring test of said support at 0.7491 but break of this last week’s low is needed to signal the fall from 0.7741 top has resumed for further fall to previous support at 0.7543 first. 

On the 4-hour chart, the move from 0.8066 is the wave 5 with i: 0.8860, ii: 0.8315, wave iii is an extended move ended at 1.0183, iv: 0.9706 and wave v has ended at 1.1081 (also the top of entire wave 5). The subsequent selloff is the major correction which is unfolding as ABC-X-ABC and 2nd A leg has ended at 0.8848, followed by a-b-c wave B which ended at 0.9758, hence, 2nd C wave is now in progress and indicated downside target at 0.7000 and 0.6950 had been met, so further fall to 0.6710-20 cannot be ruled out.


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