Trade Idea: EUR/JPY – Buy at 133.30

EUR/JPY – 134.08

Original strategy:

Buy at 132.00, Target: 134.00, Stop: 131.40

Position: –
Target: –
Stop: –

New strategy :

Buy at 133.30, Target: 135.00, Stop: 132.70

Position: –
Target:  –
Stop:-

As the single currency has surged again after brief pullback, adding credence to our view that recent upmove is still in progress and bullishness remains for further gain to 134.50-60, then towards 135.00-10, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside and reckon 135.55-60 would hold from here, risk from there is seen for a retreat to take place later. 

In view of this, we are looking to reinstate long on pullback as 133.20-30 should limit downside and bring another rise. Below 132.60-65 would defer and suggest a temporary top is possibly formed, risk test of 132.27 support but still reckon previous resistance at 132.01 (should turn into support) would remain intact, then euro shall head north again from there. 

Our latest preferred count is that wave (ii) is ABC-X-ABC which ended at 123.33 and wave (iii) is unfolding with wave iii ended at 100.77, followed by wave iv at 111.57 and wave v as well as the wave (iii) has ended at 97.04, followed by wave (iv) at 111.43 and wave (v) has ended at 94.12 which is also the end of the larger degree v, this also implied the major wave (C) has also ended there, hence major correction has commenced from there with (A) leg unfolding in its lower degree wave c which has possibly ended at 145.69. Under this count, A-B-C wave (B) has commenced with A leg ended at 136.23, wave B at 143.79 and wave C has possibly ended at 149.79.

Our larger degree count is that the decline from 139.26 is wave (C) and is sub-divided into a diagonal triangle i-ii-iii-iv-v with wave i – 105.44, wave ii- 123.33, wave iii – 97.03, wave iv – 111.43, followed by the final wave v as well as the end of wave (C) at 94.12, this also mark the bottom of larger degree wave B. Under this count, major rise in wave C has commenced as an impulsive wave with minor wave III ended at 145.69, wave V is still in progress for further gain to 150.00. Having said that, this so-called wave V could well be the first leg of larger degree 5-waver wave C and this wave C should bring at least a retest of wave A top at 169.97 (July 2008).