GBP/JPY – 150.55

Original strategy:

Buy at 149.50, Target: 151.50, Stop: 148.90

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Position: –
Target: –
Stop: –

New strategy :

Sell at 151.00, Target: 149.00, Stop: 151.60

Position: –
Target:  –

Although sterling rose to 151.55 again today, failure to penetrate this level and current retreat suggest consolidation would be seen and as long as said resistance holds, mild downside bias is for test of 150.00, break there would suggest a temporary top is possibly formed, bring retracement of recent rise to 149.50, then 149.00, however, reckon previous resistance at 148.35 (now support) would hold and bring rebound later.

In view of this, we are looking to turn short on recovery as 151.15-20 should limit upside and bring another retreat. Above said resistance at 151.55 would abort and extend recent rise to 152.00, then 153.00, however, near term overbought condition should limit upside to 154.00-10 and price should falter below 155.00. Our latest preferred count is that triangle wave B correction ended at 139.35 (the final e leg of triangle), hence wave C has commenced and may extend further gain to 153.00 and later 154.00.

Our preferred count is that larger degree wave V with circle is unfolding from 251.12 with wave (I) 219.34, (II): 241.38 and wave (III) is subdivided into 1: 192.60, 2: 215.89 (23 Jul 2008) and wave 3 ended at 118.87 earlier in 2009. The correction from there to 162.60 is wave 4 which itself is a double three and is labeled as first a-b-c ended at 151.53, followed by wave x at 139.03, 2nd a ended at 162.60, 2nd b at 146.75 and 2nd c leg of wave 4 ended at 163.00. Therefore, the decline from 163.00 to 116.85 is now treated as wave 5 which also marked the end of larger degree wave (III), hence wave (IV) major correction has commenced for retracement of the wave (III) from 241.38 and upside target at 183.95-00 (50% Fibonacci retracement of the wave (II) from 241.38) had been met, a drop below 160.00 would suggest wave (IV) has ended at 195.85, bring decline in wave (V) for initial weakness to 130 (already met) and 120.


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