USD/CAD – 1.2816
Trend: Near term up
Original strategy :
Buy at 1.2755, Target: 1.2955, Stop: 1.2695
New strategy :
Buy at 1.2705, Target: 1.2905, Stop: 1.2645
As the greenback has retreated after faltering below resistance at 1.2917, suggesting consolidation below this level would be seen and pullback to 1.2750 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon downside would be limited to 1.2700-05 and bring another rise later, above said resistance at 1.2917 would signal the rise from 1.2061 low is still in progress and extend gain to 1.2950, having said that, as we are still treating this rebound from 1.2061 as wave iv, reckon 1.2975-80 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of wave iii) would limit upside and 1.3000 should hold, bring selloff later in wave v. We are keeping our count that wave v as well as wave (C) ended at 1.3794 and impulsive wave (i ii, i ii) is now unfolding with minor wave iii ended at 1.2414, followed by wave iv correction ended at 1.2778, wave v has reached our indicated downside target at 1.2100 and may extend to 1.2000.
In view of this, we are looking to reinstate long on subsequent pullback as 1.2700-05 should limit downside and bring another rise. Below 1.2670-75 would defer and suggest a temporary top is possibly formed, bring correction to 1.26350-40 but break there is needed to confirm, bring weakness to 1.2610-15, then test of 1.2591.
To recap, wave B from 1.3066 is unfolding as an a-b-c and is sub-divided as a: 1.2192, b: 1.2716 and wave c is a 5-waver with i: 1.1983, ii: 1.2506, extended wave iii with minor iii at 1.0206, wave iv ended at 1.0781 and wave v as well as wave iii has ended at 0.9931, hence the subsequent choppy trading is the wave iv which is unfolding as (a)-(b)-(c) with (a) leg of iv ended at 1.0854, followed by (b) leg at 1.0108 and (c) leg as well as the wave iv ended at 1.0674. The wave v is sub-divided by minor wave (i): 0.9980, (ii): 1.0374, (iii): 0.9446, (iv): 0.9913 and (v) as well as v has possibly ended at 0.9407, therefore, consolidation with upside bias is seen for major correction, indicated target at 1.3700 and 1.4000 had been met and further gain to 1.4700 would be seen later.