USD/CAD – 1.2807

Trend:  Near term up

 
Original strategy       :

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Exit short entered at 1.2770

Position: –

Target:  –

Stop: –

 
New strategy             :

Stand aside

Position: –

Target:  –

Stop:-

Current rebound suggests near term upside risk remains for gain to 1.2820 and possibly 1.2850-60, however, a firm break above this level is needed to signal the correction from 1.2917 has ended, bring further gain to 1.2880, then towards this level which is likely to hold from here.

In view of this, would not chase this move here and would be prudent to stand aside in the meantime. Below 1.2740 would prolong consolidation, risk weakness to 1.2710-15, only break of 1.2700 would revive bearishness and signal the rebound from 1.2665 has ended, bring another test o this level, break there would extend the fall from 1.2917 top for retracement of recent rise to support at 1.2636 but a drop below this level is needed to signal recent rise has ended at 1.2917, bring further fall to 1.2600 and later towards 1.2550-60.

To recap, wave B from 1.3066 is unfolding as an a-b-c and is sub-divided as a: 1.2192, b: 1.2716 and wave c is a 5-waver with i: 1.1983, ii: 1.2506, extended wave iii with minor iii at 1.0206, wave iv ended at 1.0781 and wave v as well as wave iii has ended at 0.9931, hence the subsequent choppy trading is the wave iv which is unfolding as (a)-(b)-(c) with (a) leg of iv ended at 1.0854, followed by (b) leg at 1.0108 and (c) leg as well as the wave iv ended at 1.0674. The wave v is sub-divided by minor wave (i): 0.9980, (ii): 1.0374, (iii): 0.9446, (iv): 0.9913 and (v) as well as v has possibly ended at 0.9407, therefore, consolidation with upside bias is seen for major correction, indicated target at 1.3700 and 1.4000 had been met and further gain to 1.4700 would be seen later.

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