USD/JPY – 109.15
USD/JPY – Wave V of larger degree circle V has possibly ended at 75.31 and major correction has commenced and already met indicated target at 125.00.
Although the greenback fell briefly to 108.60, lack of follow through selling on break of previous support at 108.83 and the subsequent recovery suggest consolidation would be seen and another bounce to 109.85 cannot be ruled out, however, still reckon upside would be limited to 110.35-40 and renewed selling interest should emerge around resistance at 110.95, bring another selloff later. Below 108.60 would bring retest of 108.13 (this year’s low) but break there is needed to extend early decline to 107.50, then 107.00, having said that, reckon 106.50-55 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 99.01-118.66) would limit downside and price should stay above 105.00 psychological level.
Our preferred count is that, triangle wave IV (with circle) ended at 101.45 and the circle wave V brought dollar down to the record low of 75.31 in 2011 and the subsequent rebound signal major correction has commenced with A leg ended at 84.19, followed by wave B at 77.14 and impulsive wave C is now unfolding (indicated upside target at 125.00 had been met) for gain towards 127.00 level. In the event dollar drops below support at 99.01, this would confirm medium term decline from 125.86 top (2015 high) has resumed for subsequent weakness to 98.00 and possibly 97.00.
Under this count, this wave C is unfolding as impulsive waves with (1) (2), 1 2 ended at 80.67, 79.07, 82.84 and 81.69 respectively, hence the extended wave 3 has ended at 103.74 and wave 4 correction of recent upmove should bring weakness to 92.57, then towards 90.88 but psychological support at 90.00 should limit downside and bring another rally later in wave 5, indicated target at 125.00 had been met and gain to 127.00 cannot be ruled out but reckon price would falter below 130.00.
On the upside, whilst initial recovery to 109.85 and 110.30-35 cannot be ruled out, reckon upside would be limited to resistance at 110.95 and bring another decline. Above 111.70-75 would defer and suggest the fall from 114.50 has formed a temporary low instead, bring retracement of recent decline to 112.00, then test of resistance at 112.20 , however, still reckon upside would be limited to 112.85-90 and price should falter below resistance at 113.58, bring another selloff later.
Recommendation: Sell again at 110.90 for 108.90 with stop above 111.90.
On the monthly chart, we have changed our preferred count that an impulsive wave is unfolding with major wave III with circle ended at 79.75, then followed by wave IV with circle and is labeled as a triangle with A: 147.64 (11 August, 1998), B: 101.25, C: 135.20, D: 101.67 and E leg ended at 124.14 to end the wave IV with circle. Hence, wave V with circle commenced from there and hit a record low of 75.31, however, the subsequent strong rebound signals this circle wave V has possibly ended there, hence gain to (indicated upside target at 122.00 and 125.00 had been met), the retreat from 125.86 suggests wave A of major correction has ended there and wave B correction back to 99.00, then 95.00 would be seen, however, reckon downside would be limited to 90.00, bring another rebound in wave C next year.