GBP/USD – 1.2463
GBP/USD – Wave 4 is unfolding as an (A)-(B)-(C) and could have ended at 1.7192
Although cable fell briefly to 1.2109 last week, the subsequent stronger-than-expected rebound signals the fall from 1.2706 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias is seen for further gain to 1.2570, however, a daily close above there is needed to add credence to this view, bring retest of this level later. Looking ahead, only above 1.2706 would retain bullishness and signal another leg of corrective upmove from 1.1986 low is underway for further gain to 1.2800 and then 1.2900 but psychological resistance at 1.3000 would remain intact.
Our preferred count on the daily chart is that cable’s rebound from 1.3500 (wave (A) trough) is unfolding as a wave (B) with A ended at 1.7043, followed by triangle wave B and wave C as well as wave (B) has possibly ended at 1.7192, below support at 1.4232 would add credence to this count, then further fall to 1.4000 level would follow but reckon downside would be limited to 1.3655 support and price should stay above previous support at 1.3500.
On the downside, whilst initial pullback to 1.2400 cannot be ruled out, reckon downside would be limited to 1.2350 and bring another rise later. A daily close below support at 1.2335 would dampen this bullish view and bring weakness to 1.2290-00 but reckon 1.2240-50 would hold, bring another rebound. A drop below 1.2240-50 would suggest the rebound from 1.2109 has ended instead, bring further fall to 1.2200 and then 1.2150-60 but said support at 1.2109 should remain intact.
Recommendation: Buy at 1.2350 for 1.2550 with stop above 1.2250.
Longer term – Cable’s rise from 1.0520 (Feb 1985) to 2.0100 (September 1992) is seen as [A], the decline to 1.3682 is labeled as (B) and (C) wave rally has ended at 2.1162 (9 Nov, 2007) which is also the top of larger degree wave B with circle. The selloff from there is a 5-waver with wave (A) ended at 1.3500 (23 Jan 2009), wave (B) itself is labeled as A: 1.6733, triangle wave B: 1.4813 and wave C as well as top of wave (B) ended at 1.7192 (2014), hence the selloff from there is an impulsive wave (C) with wave I : 1.4566, wave II 1.5930, an extended wave III is unfolding and already exceeded our downside target at 1.3500 and 1.3000, hence weakness to 1.2500 and possibly 1.2000 cannot be ruled out, however, price should stay well above psychological level at 1.0000.