Daily Report

Dollar Turning Softer, Struggling to Break Resistance against Yen, Swiss and Aussie

Typography

While major US indices extended their record run overnight, Dollar is lagging behind and is turning soft today. DOW closed up 0.37% at 22641.67, S&P 500 up 0.22% at 2534.58, NASDAQ up 0.23% at 6531.71. 10 year yield jumped to 2.361 but pared gain to close down -0.003 at 2.334. Technically, there are a few points to noted. USD/CHF struggled to stand above 0.9772 key near term resistance. USD/JPY also struggles to take out a medium term channel resistance. Meanwhile, AUD/USD also cannot sustain below 0.7807 key support. It's early to tell if Dollar is completing it's near term rebound, but risk is increasing.

It's reported that US President Donald Trumps' advisers have finalized a shortlist of candidate to lead Fed after Janet Yellen's term expires next year. While Yellen stays in the shortlist naturally, it's very doubtful if she's still be considered. Meanwhile, Trump's chief economic advisor Gary Cohn, Fed Governor Jerome Powell and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh are part of the shortlist. Yellen, Cohn, Powell and Warsh are believed to be interviewed by Trump last week already. Trump also indicated that he could make a decision in two or three weeks.

MEP voted to delay trade negotiations with UK

Members of the European Parliament voted to delay trade discussions with UK until there is a "major breakthrough" in the negotiation. The motion was backed by 557 MEPs, with 92 against and 29 abstained. While the vote was not binding, it did show the united stance among EU officials on the issue. And, some EU officials are clearly dissatisfied with the way UK is taking the negotiations. The Parliament's chief Brexit spokesman Guy Verhofstadt blamed the open splits among UK officials for the of progress. He pointed out that "there are differences between Hammond and Fox... and Johnson and May."

UK Brexit Secretary David Davis said that they're "ready for the alternative" should outcome of Brexit negotiation falls short of "the deal that Britain needs". And, "there is a determined exercise under way in Whitehall devoted to contingency arrangements so that we are ready for any outcome."

More than 15000 people protested in Barcelona yesterday, against the Spanish government's violence on the disputed Catalonia independence referendum. 50 roads were blocked while most schools and small businesses were closed. The official result of Sunday's referendum will presented to Catalonian parliament today or tomorrow. And a formal declaration of independence could be declared shortly after. European Parliament will discuss the situation today. Meanwhile, Spain's King Felipe VI criticized that Catalan leaders have broken the law of the stat and showed and "inadmissable lack of loyalty."

BoJ Nakaso: Could incur red ink during stimulus exit

Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Hiroshi Nakaso said that during the exit of monetary stimulus, the BoJ could incur "red ink". But he expressed his confidence that "short-term fluctuations in the BOJ's revenues won't disrupt our policy-making." And, the central bank could learn from Fed's experience on tapering of quantitative easing. Meanwhile, Nakaso also urged the government to take a "balanced" approach on fiscal policies and emphasized that "it's important to create a sustainable fiscal framework in Japan." This was seen as a response to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's plan to delay the target of reaching primary budget surplus by a few years.

On the data front

UK BRC shop price dropped -0.1% yoy in September. UK services PMI will be a main focus in European session. Eurozone will release retial sales and services PMI final. From US, ADP employment and ISM services will be released.

USD/CHF Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9714; (P) 0.9749; (R1) 0.9771; More....

Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains neutral as it struggled to take out 0.9772 firmly. And outlook remains unchanged. On the upside, decisive break of 0.9772 key resistance will suggest that whole down trend form 1.0342 has completed. In that case, near term outlook will be turned bullish for 0.9860/1.0099 resistance zone. However, break of 09669 minor support will suggest rejection from 09772 and turn bias back to the downside for 0.9587 support. Break will target retesting 0.9420 low.

In the bigger picture, focus remains on whether 0.9443 key support (2016 low) could be taken out firmly as down trend from 1.0342 extends. There are various interpretation of the price actions. But in any case, medium term outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9772 resistance holds. Current down trend could extend to 38.2% retracement of 0.7065 (2011 low) to 1.0342 (2016 high) at 0.9090. However, break of 0.9772 will indicate that USD/CHF has successfully defended 0.9443 again and turn outlook bullish for 1.0099 resistance.

USD/CHF 4 Hours Chart

USD/CHF Daily Chart

Economic Indicators Update

GMT Ccy Events Actual Forecast Previous Revised
23:01 GBP BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y Sep -0.10% -0.30%
7:45 EUR Italy Services PMI Sep 55 55.1
7:50 EUR France Services PMI Sep F 57.1 57.1
7:55 EUR Germany Services PMI Sep F 55.6 55.6
8:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI Sep F 55.6 55.6
8:30 GBP Services PMI Sep 53.2 53.2
9:00 EUR Eurozone Retail Sales M/M Aug 0.30% -0.30%
12:15 USD ADP Employment Change Sep 140K 237K
13:45 USD Services PMI Sep F 55.1 55.1
14:00 USD ISM Services/Non-Manufacturing Composite Sep 55.5 55.3
14:30 USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.8M