GBP/USD’s corrective rise from 1.2773 extended higher last week but stayed below 1.3030 resistance. Outlook remains unchanged and initial bias remains neutral first. We’re favoring the case that correction from 1.1946 is completed at 1.3267. Below 1.2852 minor support will turn intraday bias back to the downside for 1.2588 key near term support first. Decisive break of 1.2588 will confirm our view and target a test on 1.1946 low. Though, break of 1.3030 will dampen this bearish view and turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.3267.
In the bigger picture, overall, price actions from 1.1946 medium term low are seen as a corrective pattern. While further rise cannot be ruled out, larger outlook remains bearish as long as 1.3444 key resistance holds. Down trend from 1.7190 (2014 high) is expected to resume later after the correction completes. And break of 1.2588 will indicate that such down trend is resuming.
In the longer term picture, no change in the view that down trend from 2.1161 (2007 high) is still in progress. On resumption, such decline would extend deeper to 100% projection of 2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7190 at 0.9532. However, firm break of 1.3444 should confirm reversal and turn outlook bullish.
