Although dollar’s retreat from 0.9595 signals the rise from 0.7068 record low has indeed formed a temporary top there and consolidation with mild downside bias remains for retracement to 0.9080-85 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8568-0.9595) and then previous support at 0.9067, psychological support at 0.9000 should limit downside and reckon 0.8875 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.7711-0.9595) would hold

Despite last month’s fall to 117.30, the subsequent stronger-than-expected rebound suggest medium term decline is not ready to resume yet and further consolidation above 116.80 would take place and another test of 122.00 resistance is likely, break there would extend the rebound from 117.30 to previous resistance at 122.75, then towards 123.40-45 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 127.20-117.30)

Last week’s rise to 1.5884 adds credence to our view that low has been formed at 1.5234 earlier last month and indicated upside target at 1.5810 consolidation with upside bias remains for further gain to 1.5810-15 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6167-1.5234) and previous support at 1.5869 had been met, bullishness remains for this move to bring a stronger retracement of recent decline to 1.5990-95

Although the greenback fell to as low as 76.03 last week, the subsequent rebound in part due to dollar’s broad-based strength on solid U.S. data has retained our view that further consolidation above record low of 75.31 would take place and mild upside bias remains for another bounce to 77.15-20 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 78.29-76.03), then to 77.43 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement). Having said that, above resistance at 78.29 (this would also penetrate 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 79.55-76.03) is needed to retain bullishness and signal the retreat from 79.55 has ended at 76.03, then a stronger rebound to 78.70/75 would follow

The single currency moved more or less in line with our expectations and our short position entered at 102.00 met indicated downside target 100.05 (with 195 points profit) and price slipped to as low as 99.25 earlier this week before rebounding, this anticipated retreat suggests the first leg of correction from 97.04 has ended at 102.21 and 1-2 weeks of consolidation should take place.

Although dollar’s stronger-than-expected retreat from 0.9595 signals the rise from 0.7068 record low has indeed formed a temporary top there and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for retracement to 0.9080-85 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8568-0.9595) and then previous support at 0.9067, psychological support at 0.9000 should limit downside and reckon 0.8875 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.7711-0.9595) would hold

Although the single currency retreated after last week’s rebound to 0.8409, a break of 0.8255 is needed to signal the rebound from 0.8222 has ended and bring resumption of recent decline for a retest of 0.8222. A break of this support would extend major downtrend to 0.8198 (61.8% projection of 0.8665-0.8302 measuring from 0.8422) but loss of downward momentum should prevent sharp fall below 0.8145-50

As indicated support at 1.0052 was finally penetrated last week, suggesting the rebound form 0.9892 has ended at 1.0524 and near term downside bias is seen for weakness towards this support, a break of this level would signal the b leg of major correction from 0.9407 low is still unfolding for further weakness to 0.9750 and possibly to 0.9720-25, however, this b leg should still be limited to 0.9700

As the Australian dollar has continued to move higher in the past 2 weeks after breaking resistance at 1.0387, suggesting the rebound from 0.9664 is still in progress and test of previous resistance at 1.0753 would be seen later, however, a daily close above this level is needed to retain bullishness and signal the major correction of 1.1081 top has ended at 0.9388 and bring further gain to 1.0800 and 1.0850 but reckon 1.0900-10 would hold from here

Despite last month’s anticipated decline to 1.2877, the subsequent rebound suggests a minor low is possibly as some kind of minor wave (iii), so consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for correction in wave (iv) to take place, however, upside should be limited to 1.3330-35 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4075-1.2877) and bring another decline later. A break of 1.3050-55 would suggest the rebound from 1.2877 has ended and bring weakness to 1.3000

Although sterling’s retreat from 1.4801 has kept the currency pair under pressure and near term downside risk remains for the fall from this temporary top to bring retracement of recent upmove to 1.4300, however, near term oversold condition should limit downside to previous support at 1.4220-30 and bring another rebound later. A break of 1.4500 would suggest low is possibly formed but a daily close above 1.4600-10 is needed to add credence to this view

As the British pound has continued to move higher, confirming low has been formed at 1.5234 earlier this month and consolidation with upside bias is seen for further gain to 1.5810-15 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6167-1.5234) and then previous support at 1.5869. Having said that, upside should be limited to 1.5990-95 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 1.6747-1.5234) and price should falter well below resistance at 1.6167

Failure to extend last week’s rebound and the subsequent sharp retreat after failing to break resistance at 78.29 suggest further consolidation would be seen and although marginal weakness from here cannot be ruled out, sharp fall below support at 76.55 should not be repeated and reckon 76.00 would hold, bring another rebound later. Above said resistance at 78.29 would revive our bullish view that the correction from 79.55 has possibly ended, bring further gain to minor resistance at 79.10

Euro continued to move higher last week to as high as 1.3233 this morning, suggesting a temporary low is formed (as wave i of (3)) and consolidation with mild upside bias is seen for retracement of the intermediate fall from 1.4248 (wave (2) top) is underway and gain to 1.3244 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.4248-1.2624) and possibly 1.3300, however, reckon upside would be limited to 1.3436 (50% Fibonacci retracement) and resistance at 1.3550 should remain intact

As the single currency has retreated after rising to 102.21 last week, retaining our view that a minor top is formed there and consolidation below this level would take place with mild downside bias for retracement to 100.00 and possibly towards 99.60-65, however, renewed buying interest should emerge there, bring another upmove later. A break of said resistance would extend the rise from 97.04 low (wave v bottom) for major correction of recent decline in wave (iv) to 102.50-55

Dollar’s retreat from 0.9595 turned out to be stronger than expected, signaling the rise from 0.7068 record low has indeed formed a temporary top there and consolidation with mild downside bias is seen for retracement to 0.9080-85 (50% Fibonacci retracement of 0.8568-0.9595) and then previous support at 0.9067, however, psychological support at 0.9000 should limit downside and reckon 0.8875 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 0.7711-0.9595) would hold

Although the single currency rose to as high as 102.21 yesterday, the subsequent retreat suggests consolidation below this level would be seen and mild downside bias remains for pullback to 100.00-05, however, as temporary low has been formed at 97.04 earlier, downside should be limited to support at 98.90 and bring another rebound later.

Although euro’s stronger-than-expected retreat from 1.2475 suggests a temporary top has been formed there and retracement of recent rise to 1.2025/30 cannot be ruled out, near term oversold condition should limit downside to psychological support at 1.2000 and bring rebound later. Above 1.2200 would bring test of 1.2240-50

As the British pound staged a stronger-than-expected rebound from 1.5234, suggesting a temporary low is possibly formed there and test of resistance at 1.5775-80 cannot be ruled out, however, a daily close above there is needed to add credence to this view and bring a stronger retracement of recent decline from 1.6747 to 1.5810-15