In BoE Quarterly Inflation Report, the overall economic projections are rather dovish with downgrade in growth and inflation forecasts. Unemployment rate projections were revised higher. Meanwhile, the projected Bank rate was also revised lower across the forecast horizon. It’s now suggested that BoE may only hike once, within the forecast horizon, possibly in 2020.
Four-quarter GDP growth:
- 1.5% in 2019 Q1, down from November forecast of 1.8%
- 1.3% in 2020 Q1, down from 1.7%
- 1.7% in 2021 Q1, unchanged
- 2.0% in 2022 Q1, new
CPI:
- 1.8% in 2019 Q1, down from 2.2%.
- 2.3% in 2020 Q1, down from 2.4%.
- 2.1% in 2021 Q1, unchanged.
- 2.1% in 2022 Q1.
Unemployment rate:
- 3.9% in 2019 Q1, unchanged.
- 4.1% in 2020 Q1, up from 3.9%
- 4.1% in 2021 Q1, up from 3.9%
- 3.8% in 2022 Q1.
Bank rate:
- 0.7% in 2019 Q1, down from 0.8%.
- 0.9% in 2020 Q1, down from 1.1%
- 1.0% in 2021 Q1, down from 1.3%.
- 1.1% in 2022 Q2, new
