USD/JPY rebounded further last week but was held below 112.13 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week for some more consolidation. But still, as long as 110.35 support hold, near term outlook remains bullish. On the upside, break of 112.13 will resume the rally from 104.69 to 114.54 resistance next. However, firm break of 110.35 should confirm near term reversal and turn outlook bearish for 108.49 support and below.
In the bigger picture, strong rebound from 104.69 argues that decline from 118.65 (2016 high) has completed with three waves down to 104.69, after failing 104.62. More importantly, the rise from 98.97 (2016 low) could be resuming. Decisive break of 114.54 resistance will add more credence to this bullish case and target 118.65. This will now be the favored case as long as 110.35 support holds. However, firm break of 110.35 will mix up the medium term outlook again and turn focus back to 104.69 low.
In the long term picture, the rise from 75.56 (2011 low) long term bottom to 125.85 (2015 high) is viewed as an impulsive move, no change in this view. Price actions from 125.85 are seen as a corrective move which could still extend. In case of deeper fall, downside should be contained by 61.8% retracement of 75.56 to 125.85 at 94.77. Up trend from 75.56 is expected to resume at a later stage for above 135.20/147.68 resistance zone.
