EUR/GBP surged to as high as 0.8778 last week. The strong break of 0.8681 and 0.8722 resistance firstly confirmed rebound from 0.8472 low. Secondly, with a close above 55 week EMA, it’s raising the chance of bullish reversal. Initial bias remains on the upside this week for 0.8840 resistance first. Decisive break there will target 0.9101 key resistance next. On the downside, though, break of 0.8681 resistance turned support will suggest completion of the rebound and turn bias back to the downside.
In the bigger picture, medium term decline from 0.9305 (2017 high) is seen as a corrective move. No change in this view. Current development argues that it might have completed with three waves down to 0.8472, just ahead of 38.2% retracement of 0.6935 (2015 low) to 0.9306 at 0.8400, after hitting 55 month EMA (now at 0.8511). Decisive break of 0.9101 resistance will confirm this bullish case. Nevertheless, as EUR/GBP is still staying inside long term falling channel, correction from 0.9305 could still extend to 0.8400 fibonacci level before completion.
In the long term picture, we’re holding on to the view that rise from 0.6935 (2015 low) is resuming the up trend from 0.5680 (2000 low). As long as 50% retracement of 0.6935 to 0.9304 at 0.8120 holds, further rise should be seen through 0.9305 to 0.9799 and above down the road.
