USD/CHF dropped further to 0.9695 last week but recovered since then. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations first. Upside of recovery should be limited by 0.9854 support turned resistance to bring fall resumption. On the downside, break of 0.9695 will resume the decline from 1.0237 and target 0.9587 fibonacci level next. Nevertheless, break of 0.9854 will indicate short term bottoming and target 1.0014 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, current development suggests that up trend from 0.9186 (2018 low) has completed at 1.0237 already. Deeper decline would be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.9186 to 1.0237 at 0.9587 and below. For now, USD/CHF is seen as in long term range pattern between 0.9186 and 1.0342. Hence, we’d pay attention to bottoming signal below 0.9587.
In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are not clearly impulsive yet. Thus, we’ll treat it as developing into a corrective pattern, at least, until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.
