EUR/CHF’s recovery from 1.0832 extended higher to 1.0928 last week. While such recovery was stronger than expected, it’s nevertheless still see as correction and could have completed. Initial bias is on the downside this week for 1.0832. Break will resume larger down trend from 1.2004. On the upside, break of 1.0928 will extend the rebound to 55 day EMA (now at 1.1021). But, in that case, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.1476 to 1.0832 at 1.1078 to bring down trend resumption.
In the bigger picture, current development firstly suggests that down trend from 1.2004 is still in progress. More importantly, it’s likely a long term down trend itself, rather than a correction. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 1.1476 resistance holds. EUR/CHF should target 1.0629 support and below.
