The March consumer expectations survey by the New York Fed showed that perceived chance of losing they job jumped to series high. Expected growth in household income and spending decline sharply. Meanwhile, inflation uncertainty increased in both horizons.
The mean perceived probability of losing one’s job in the next 12 months increased 4.7 percentage points to 18.5%. The reading is a new series’ high and 4.3 percentage points above the 12-month trailing average.
Median household income growth expectations dropped sharply to 2.1%, 0.9 percentage point below its 12-month trailing average. Median household spending growth expectations declined to 2.3%, 0.9 percentage point below its 12-month trailing average.
Median inflation expectations at the one-year horizon were unchanged at 2.5% but decreased at the three-year horizon to 2.4% in March from 2.6% in February. There was a large increase in median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed by each respondent regarding future inflation outcomes—at the one-year horizon, and a moderate increase at the three-year horizon.
