GBP/JPY’s decline last week suggests short term topping at 139.73. Further fall is in favor this week as long as 136.23 minor resistance holds. Sustained trading below 55 day EMA (now at 134.32) will argue that whole rebound from 123.94 has completed. Fall from 139.73 should then target 129.27 support to confirm this bearish case. On the upside, though, above 136.23 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 139.73 instead.
In the bigger picture, we’re still seeing price actions from 122.75 (2016 low) are seen as a sideway consolidation pattern. As long as 147.95 resistance holds, an eventual downside breakout remains in favor. however, firm break of 147.95 will raise the chance of long term bullish reversal. Focus will then be turned to 156.59 resistance for confirmation.
In the longer term picture, repeated rejection by 55 month EMA indicate long term bearishness in the cross. Down trend from 251.09 (2007 high) should eventually resume through 122.75 to 116.83 (2011 low) and below. However, sustained break of 55 month EMA (now at 145.32) will dampen this view and could open up further rise to 195.86 (2015 high).
