In the new World Economic Update released today, IMF said it’s now projecting a deeper recession in 2020 and a slower recovery in 2021. It also noted that a high degree of uncertainty surrounds this forecast, with both upside and downside risks to the outlook. Upside risks include better news on coronavirus vaccines and treatments and additional policy support. Downside risks include deforceor waves of infections. Additionally, geopolitical and trade tensions could damage fragile global relationships.
In short, world output is projected to contract -4.9% in 2020 (revised down by -1.9%) and grow 5.4% in 20201 (revised down by -0.4%. For advanced economies, Eurozone, France, Italy, Spain, and UK are all expected to have double-digit contraction in GDP in 2021. None of the advanced economies are expected to fully recover the contraction in 2021.
