USD/CAD’s down trend resumed last week and accelerated to as low as 1.2772. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 100% projection of 1.3389 to 1.2928 from 1.3172 at 1.2711 next. Break will target 161.8% projection at 1.2426. On the upside, above 1.2868 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first, before staging another fall.
In the bigger picture, fall from 1.4667 is seen as the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.4689 (2016 high). Further decline should be seen back to 1.2061 (2017 low). In any case, break of 1.3389 resistance is needed to indicate medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.
In the longer term picture, we’re viewing price actions from 1.4689 as a consolidation pattern. Thus, up trend from 0.9506 (2007 low) is still expected to resume at a later stay. This will remain the favored case as long as 1.2061 support holds, which is close to 50% retracement of 0.9406 to 1.4689 at 1.2048.
