USD/CHF’s down trend extended to 0.8756 last we, but recovered just ahead of 61.8% projection of 0.9901 to 0.8998 from 0.9304 at 0.8746. Initial bias stays neutral for some consolidations first. Outlook will remain bearish as long as 0.8918 resistance holds. Break of 0.8756 will target long term projection level at 0.8639. However, sustained break of 0.8918 will indicate short term bottoming, on bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for stronger rebound, back towards 0.8998 support turned resistance.
In the bigger picture, decline from 1.0237 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.0342 (2016 high). There is no clear sign of completion yet. Next target will be 138.2% projection of 1.0342 to 0.9186 from 1.0237 at 0.8639. In any case, break of 0.9304 resistance is needed to signal medium term bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish in case of rebound.
In the long term picture, price actions from 0.7065 (2011 low) are currently seen as developing into a long term corrective pattern, at least until a firm break of 1.0342 resistance.
