GBP/USD’s up trend continued to 1.3865 last week but retreated since then. Initial bias is neutral this week for consolidations first. In case of another fall, downside should be contained well above 1.3564 support to bring another rise. Break of 1.3865 will resume larger up trend from 1.1409 to 61.8% projection of 1.1409 to 1.3482 from 1.2675 at 1.3956 next.
In the bigger picture, rise from 1.1409 medium term bottom is in progress. Further rally would be seen to 1.4376 resistance and above. On the downside, break of 1.2675 support is needed to indicate completion of the rise. Otherwise, outlook will stay cautiously bullish even in case of deep pullback.
In the longer term picture, a long term bottom should be in place at 1.1409, on bullish convergence condition in monthly MACD. Rise from there would target 38.2% retracement of 2.1161 to 1.1409 at 1.5134. Reaction from there would reveal whether rise from 1.1409 is just a correction, or developing into a long term up trend.
