NIESR said supply constraints are growing and likely to persist through in Autumn. It forecasts UK GDP to grow 1.5% in Q3, followed by 0.8% in Q4. That included an estimated 0.4% mom growth in GDP in September.
Rory Macqueen Principal Economist, NIESR: “The reopening of the economy continued to support growth in August, with the popularity of domestic holidays contributing to 23 per cent month-on-month growth for hotels and campsites in particular. The fact that consumer-facing services remain 5 per cent below their peak suggests ample room for future catch-up in future too. Elsewhere a further fall in construction output may have been down in part to a reported increase in input costs: something likely to affect the economy more broadly if shortages lead to more generalised price rises over the autumn. The coming months could see something of a two-speed recovery, with sectors most affected by shortages in decline while others continue to recover.”
