EUR/AUD edged higher to 1.5743 last week but lost momentum since then. Initial bias is neutral this week. ON the downside, break of 1.5585 minor support should confirm rejection by 55 day EMA (now at 1.5755). Intraday bias will be turned back to the downside to extend the fall from 1.6434 through 1.5354. On upside, however, sustained break of 55 day EMA will argue that whole fall from 1.6434 has completed and bring stronger rally.
In the bigger picture, the down trend from 1.9799 (2020 high) is in progress. Firm break of 1.5250 low will confirm resumption and target 61.8% retracement of 1.1602 (2012 low) to 1.9799 at 1.4733. Sustained break there could bring more downside acceleration to 61.8% projection of 1.9799 to 1.5250 from 1.6434 at 1.3623. In any case, break of 1.6434 resistance is needed to signal medium term bottoming, or outlook will stay bearish.
In the longer term picture, fall from 1.9799 (2020 high) is seen as a long term down trend. Sustained break of 61.8 retracement of 1.1602 to 1.9799 at 1.4733 will extend the decline to 1.3624 long term support and possibly below.
